RBI Monetary Policy Committee decision — 7 October 2026
What this is
The Reserve Bank of India's rate-setting meeting. The committee sits over three days and the decision is read out on the last of them at 10:00 IST, inside the Indian trading session — so the market's reaction lands on the same day the desk dates the event.
Who decides
Six members: the RBI Governor, a Deputy Governor, one officer of the Bank, and three members appointed by the central government. The Governor holds a casting vote if the six divide evenly. The statement carries the policy rate, the stance, and the committee's own assessment of growth and inflation.
What moves
The policy rate itself is only part of it. The banking index carries the most direct exposure, the rupee reprices against the rate path, and the short end of the government bond curve moves on the stance rather than the number. The statement is read at 10:00 and the press conference follows, so a session can carry two separate reactions.
What it is not
The decision is not a scheduled surprise. The rate is widely polled beforehand and the option market prices the day in advance, which is why this page puts what was priced going in beside what the sessions actually delivered.
What is priced, and what has followed
the option market is asking about 0.8% by the 22 Sep expiry, 4 days away.
too few of these carry an option quote from the archive to compare what was asked with what followed
half of them landed between 0.13% and 2.00% either way
only 3 past cases — too few to say much
What events of this class have done
| index | typical move | the middle half | lean | over 1% | session after | past cases |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 0.21% | 0.13 – 2.00% | none | 33 in 100 | 0.93% 3 cases | 3 |
| BANKNIFTY | 0.35% | 0.32 – 3.01% | +0.35% | 33 in 100 | 0.79% 3 cases | 3 |
| SENSEX | 0.19% | 0.18 – 2.07% | +0.19% | 33 in 100 | 0.97% 3 cases | 3 |
what past events of this class did, per index: a base rate with its n, never a forecast of direction
The cases behind the numbers above
| date | what | index | close | next session | was asked | travelled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2026 | RBI MPC decision (meeting 03 Aug–05 Aug 2026) | BANKNIFTY | −0.29% | +0.56% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| 5 Aug 2026 | RBI MPC decision (meeting 03 Aug–05 Aug 2026) | NIFTY | +0.04% | +0.05% | 200.0% | — |
| 5 Aug 2026 | RBI MPC decision (meeting 03 Aug–05 Aug 2026) | SENSEX | +0.19% | +0.48% | 0.8% | 0.7% |
| 5 Jun 2026 | RBI MPC decision (meeting 03 Jun–05 Jun 2026) | BANKNIFTY | +0.35% | −0.79% | 4.0% | 6.0% |
| 5 Jun 2026 | RBI MPC decision (meeting 03 Jun–05 Jun 2026) | NIFTY | −0.21% | −1.04% | 1.3% | 0.7% |
| 5 Jun 2026 | RBI MPC decision (meeting 03 Jun–05 Jun 2026) | SENSEX | −0.16% | −0.97% | 200.0% | — |