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You asked: what is a base rate

Base rate

A count of what happened in past cases like the one in front of you, reported with how many cases there were. "The last 24 policy decisions moved the index about 0.6% either way" is a base rate. It is a statement about the past, and the count beside it is not decoration — the same figure over nine cases and over nine hundred means entirely different things.

Mayawhat these words mean

Maya reads the desk’s written explainers and the glossary. She holds no market data at all, so she can say what a thing is and cannot say what it is doing today.