Sixty sessions with the levels that have held, and the heaviest option strikes on the same price scale — the monthly expiry, Thu 24 Sep, 6 days to go.
Levels
- R175,474on the weekly chart too
- S173,981the low of the last ten sessions — still forming
R is resistance above the close, S is support below it, nearest first. Chosen by how often price has turned there and whether the weekly and monthly charts agree.
The day and the week
Fell early, then recovered — 0.65% lower over the 5 sessions.
Where the option writers sit
- Heaviest calls
- 74,500
- Heaviest puts
- 74,500
- Most option value expires at
- 74,600
- PCR (puts against calls)
- 1.22
The strikes with the most open contracts on each side, and the strike where the most option value would expire worthless.
- R1, R2 — resistance above the close, nearest first
- S1, S2 — support below the close, nearest first
- the nearest level of the last weekly swing
- a level price has broken through
- strikes with calls written
- strikes with puts written
Fell early, then recovered — 0.65% lower over the 5 sessions. All five sessions were falling.
The last session: 433 points from low to high; closed at the low end of its day, 433 points below the high.
71,546 on 2 Apr to 79,367 on 24 Apr, up 10.9% — and before it, 86,159 on 5 Dec to 71,546 on 2 Apr, down 17.0%.
These are the levels of the two swings named above. R1 is the first one above today's close, S1 the first below. "Reached" means price has already traded through it.
- Closed straight through within ten sessions: 178 of 242 first touches.
- Fell a full day's range back from one: 117 of the same 242.
- Often on the very same touch — which is why a level can look like it held and price still ends up past it.
- Lines at ordinary fractions of the same swings — 0.30, 0.45, 0.55, 0.70, 0.85 — behaved the same.
- Price went through 71% of those, against 74% of the Fibonacci ones.
- It is the swing that matters, not the ratio.
- After a close pushed half a day's range past the middle of the swing:
- Reached the next level down within ten sessions: 39 of 49.
- Within twenty sessions: 42 of 49.
- A count of what has happened before, not a promise about this week.
Where SENSEX stands — day, week and month
the timeframes are not reading the same way.
Day
fallinglower highs and lower lows
- Where in the swing
- the last swing was up; a pullback is in progress
- Momentum
- strongly falling
- Range
- about as wide as usual
- Compression
- the compression rule reads: a move up out of the range
over the next five sessions, the typical move has been about 1.0× a normal day's range; one in ten went beyond 2.8×
Week
risinghigher highs and higher lows
- Where in the swing
- the last swing was up; a pullback is in progress
- Momentum
- mixed
- Range
- about as wide as usual
- Compression
- the compression rule reads: a move up out of the range
over the next few weeks, the typical move has been about 0.9× a normal week's range; one in ten went beyond 2.4×
Month
sidewaysinside a range, neither side taken
- Where in the swing
- the last swing was down; a bounce is in progress
- Momentum
- mixed
- Range
- a wider stretch than usual
- Compression
- the compression rule reads: a move down out of the range
over the next few months, the typical move has been about 0.9× a normal month's range; one in ten went beyond 1.9×
SENSEX · daily
Dashed grey: reference levels. Dotted violet: the heaviest option strikes. Dotted amber: extension and retracement levels. The shaded band is the recent range; triangles mark recorded breaks and confirmed formations.
Support and resistance
Above
Below
What levels like these have done
| Level | Times touched before | Price came to it | Turned a day’s range back | Closed through | Past cases |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| above the close, also on a longer timeframe | 1 | 76 in 100 | 65 in 100 | 79 in 100 | 3,962 |
| above the close | 1 | 76 in 100 | 60 in 100 | 81 in 100 | 2,992 |
| above the close, also on a longer timeframe | 2 | 88 in 100 | 63 in 100 | 82 in 100 | 1,587 |
| above the close | 2 | 79 in 100 | 64 in 100 | 84 in 100 | 459 |
| above the close, also on a longer timeframe | 3+ | 91 in 100 | 58 in 100 | 85 in 100 | 2,231 |
| above the close | 3+ | 93 in 100 | 70 in 100 | 86 in 100 | 449 |
| below the close, also on a longer timeframe | 1 | 66 in 100 | 76 in 100 | 76 in 100 | 4,686 |
| below the close | 1 | 59 in 100 | 75 in 100 | 75 in 100 | 3,915 |
| below the close, also on a longer timeframe | 2 | 80 in 100 | 71 in 100 | 75 in 100 | 1,817 |
| below the close | 2 | 76 in 100 | 75 in 100 | 75 in 100 | 460 |
| below the close, also on a longer timeframe | 3+ | 85 in 100 | 71 in 100 | 79 in 100 | 2,409 |
| below the close | 3+ | 83 in 100 | 74 in 100 | 69 in 100 | 513 |
The last two columns are counted over the touches that were REACHED, and they overlap: on one touch price can turn a day’s range back and still close beyond it inside the window. Both are shown because printing one of them would be choosing the answer. On a level like the ones in this table, price came to it 88 times in 100, over 1,587 past cases; of those it turned a day's range back 63 times in 100 and closed through 82 times in 100.
How far it has actually travelled
| Over | 50 sessions in 100 stayed inside | 75 sessions in 100 stayed inside | 90 sessions in 100 stayed inside |
|---|---|---|---|
| the next session | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.6% |
| the next 5 sessions | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.5% |
| the next 21 sessions | 3.2% | 5.3% | 7.1% |
How far the index has actually travelled, counted over every past session. Read a row as: over that many sessions, this many in a hundred stayed inside that much either way. 75 sessions in 100 have stayed inside 2.5% either way over the next 5 sessions.
M and W formations, and their necklines
| Shape | Confirmed | Neckline | Height | Measured move | What happened |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M | 2026-08-31 | 75,474 | 4.7× | 72,666 | still open |
| W | 2026-08-24 | 79,143 | 4.6× | 82,027 | still open |
| M | 2026-08-07 | 75,474 | 4.2× | 72,284 | still open |
| W | 2026-07-29 | 78,283 | 2.5× | 80,306 | did not reach |
| W | 2026-07-29 | 78,665 | 3.2× | 81,247 | did not reach |
| M | 2026-07-22 | 76,259 | 2.8× | 73,853 | did not reach |
| W | 2026-07-13 | 78,665 | 2.9× | 81,247 | did not reach |
| M | 2026-07-10 | 73,319 | 6.3× | 68,253 | still open |
| W | 2026-06-29 | 78,385 | 2.3× | 80,511 | still open |
| M | 2026-06-23 | 73,319 | 5.5× | 68,253 | still open |
Breakouts and breakdowns
| When | Way | Level | Close | How far it went | Still beyond |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | down through | 76,823 | 76,570 | 3.4× | yes |
| 2026-08-03 | up through | 78,283 | 78,639 | 1.1× | yes |
| 2026-07-24 | down through | 76,259 | 76,060 | 0.0× | no |
| 2026-07-02 | up through | 77,492 | 77,502 | 1.4× | no |
| 2026-06-16 | up through | 76,627 | 76,808 | 0.9× | no |
| 2026-06-08 | down through | 74,134 | 73,524 | 0.7× | no |
| 2026-05-11 | down through | 76,259 | 76,015 | 1.9× | yes |
| 2026-04-15 | up through | 77,636 | 78,111 | 1.1× | yes |
| 2026-04-08 | up through | 75,850 | 77,563 | 1.7× | yes |
| 2026-03-30 | down through | 72,558 | 71,948 | 0.7× | no |
| 2026-03-23 | down through | 73,950 | 72,696 | 1.6× | yes |
| 2026-02-13 | down through | 82,925 | 82,627 | 0.7× | yes |
| 2026-01-08 | down through | 84,471 | 84,181 | 2.8× | yes |
| 2026-01-02 | up through | 85,738 | 85,762 | 0.3× | no |
| 2025-12-22 | up through | 85,321 | 85,567 | 0.7× | no |
| 2025-12-09 | down through | 84,764 | 84,666 | 0.9× | yes |
| 2025-11-19 | up through | 85,106 | 85,186 | 1.1× | yes |
| 2025-10-31 | down through | 83,957 | 83,939 | 1.9× | yes |
| 2025-10-16 | up through | 83,141 | 83,468 | 3.3× | yes |
| 2025-09-16 | up through | 82,231 | 82,381 | 1.5× | no |